Turkey Current Account Swung to Deficit on Weaker Trade, Tourism

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Turkey’s current-account balance swung to deficit in November in the absence of a significant boost from tourism income and amid a widening gap in the trade of goods.

The deficit was $2.68 billion, compared with a revised surplus of $3.14 billion in October and a deficit of $3.55 billion a year earlier, the central bank said on its website Tuesday. Turkey posted a surplus for three months before November due to an improvement in trade and balance of services.

The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey was for a deficit of $2.5 billion. The 12-month rolling shortfall is $14.3 billion.

Key Insights

• Net goods trade registered a gap of $3.48 billion, compared with a deficit of $3.86 billion in November 2020 and a surplus of $82 million in October 2021. The trade gap rose partly due to increasing energy imports
• Balance of trade in services posted a $1.92 billion surplus as tourism income dropped from previous month with the end of travel season
• Official reserves rose by $2.83 billion while net portfolio outflows reached $1.45 billion
• Net errors and omission inflows -- capital movements categorized as coming from an unknown origin -- stood at $4.46 billion, taking the inflows so far this year to $19.7 billion

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• Turkey received 1.76 million tourists from abroad in November, less than the 3.66 million average of the preceding three months
• The central bank predicts Turkey will post a current-account surplus in 2022 “due to the strengthening of the upward trend in exports”

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