Low Hurdle Seen to Maintain Sub-4% U.S. Unemployment Rate

(Bloomberg) --

Average monthly job gains of about 108,000 are needed to maintain the current 3.7% unemployment rate until next year’s U.S. presidential election.

That’s according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Jobs Calculator, which estimates the net employment change needed to achieve a target unemployment rate after a specified number of months. There are 13 jobs reports remaining, including Friday’s, before the November 2020 election.

The economy would need to add 107,733 jobs per month on average -- fewer than the 130,000 seen in August and about 75,000 fewer than two-year average of 182,000 to maintain a rate below 4%, an average of about 77,000 jobs per month will be needed, according to the Fed calculator.

The Fed model makes some assumptions about growth in the size of the labor force, the participation rate and population growth rates.

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