How Yields Could Go Negative in the U.S.

(Bloomberg) --

Negative interest rates! They’re all the rage in Europe, but could this trend come to the U.S. financial system in the foreseeable future? Lauren Goodwin, an economist and multi-asset portfolio strategist at New York Life Investment Management, explains how it could happen on the latest episode of the “What Goes Up’’ podcast.

“Two major things go into U.S. yields,” says Goodwin. “One of them is expectations for the Fed funds rate, which would go to zero if we move into a recession in the U.S.; The other thing is the term premium.”

“What makes term premiums zero or even negative, as they’ve been in the U.S. even this year, are things like investor fears; some of the concerns we’ve seen about global growth, trade wars,” she says. “So if you see the U.S. inch a little closer to recession and see some of these fears take hold, you could easily see negative U.S. yields.’’

Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg Opinion columnist Shira Ovide, who discusses the latest earnings reports from big tech and communications companies.

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