Goldman Sees Fastest Goods Inflation in 30 Years Outside of U.S.

(Bloomberg) --

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists are questioning the conventional wisdom that the global economy is suffering from a bout of slowing inflation.

In a report published Tuesday, Spencer Hill and Blake Taylor said the data doesn’t back up the argument that inflation is being softened by a combination of globalization, the disruption of industries such as taxi services and hotels, and the rise of e-commerce companies such as Amazon Inc.

Globalization and eCommerce Haven’t Pushed Down Inflation

Instead, goods inflation outside of food and energy in advanced economies away from the U.S. grew 0.6% in July, the fastest in 30 years. In the U.S., inflation across categories sensitive to the strength of the economy has also nearly returned to its pre-crisis trend of 3%.

“These considerations suggest that the ‘missing inflation’ narrative is itself overstated,” Hill and Taylor wrote.

Where inflation has been pressured, it’s by industries such as communications and health care, they said. Japan, Greece and Canada are among those economies that have witnessed lower health-care inflation as governments have sought to control expenses, although Goldman said the recent downtrend in the U.S. has largely run its course.

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