Biden Now Predicted to Win 352 Electoral Votes: FiveThirtyEight

(Bloomberg) -- Joe Biden’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to 76.7%, according to the latest run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model, from 76.6% on Sept. 24. He is predicted to win 352 of 538 electoral votes.

• The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 22.8%, down from 22.9% on Sept. 24
• According to the Sept. 25 run of the model, Trump had a 11.1% chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden’s 88.9%
• The national polling average for Trump reached 43.1% on Sept. 25, unchanged from Sept. 24
• Biden’s national polling average reached 50.3% on Sept. 25 compared with 50.2% on Sept. 24
• These were the FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts and polling averages by state on Sept. 25:group> class="news-rsf-table-string" /> class="news-rsf-table-number" /> class="news-rsf-table-string" /> class="news-rsf-table-number" data-rsf-precision="1" /> class="news-rsf-table-number" data-rsf-precision="1" /> class="news-rsf-table-number" data-rsf-precision="1" /> class="news-rsf-table-number" data-rsf-precision="1" />

  State	Electoral Votes	2016 Winner	Trump Poll Avg	Biden Poll Avg	Trump Win Chance	Biden Win Chance
  Alabama	9	Trump	55.0%	39.9%	97.2%	2.8%
  Alaska	3	Trump	49.6%	45.0%	80.5%	19.6%
  Arizona	11	Trump	44.6%	48.6%	35.1%	64.9%
  Arkansas	6	Trump	47.0%	45.0%	94.3%	5.7%
  California	55	Clinton	30.7%	61.9%	0.2%	99.8%
  Colorado	9	Clinton	40.6%	51.0%	12.4%	87.6%
  Connecticut	7	Clinton	34.4%	53.9%	1.0%	99.0%
  Delaware	3	Clinton	38.4%	57.3%	0.1%	99.9%
  District of Columbia	3	Clinton	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
  Florida	29	Trump	46.3%	48.1%	43.0%	57.0%
  Georgia	16	Trump	46.9%	46.0%	63.1%	36.9%
  Hawaii	4	Clinton	30.3%	56.8%	1.1%	98.9%
  Idaho	4	Trump	59.3%	34.7%	99.6%	0.4%
  Illinois	20	Clinton	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	99.7%
  Indiana	11	Trump	53.0%	38.6%	96.2%	3.8%
  Iowa	6	Trump	46.2%	45.6%	62.7%	37.3%
  Kansas	6	Trump	50.6%	41.3%	93.2%	6.8%
  Kentucky	8	Trump	56.5%	38.1%	98.5%	1.6%
  Louisiana	8	Trump	50.8%	40.5%	90.4%	9.6%
  Maine	4	Clinton	39.0%	54.3%	11.7%	88.3%
  Maryland	10	Clinton	33.1%	60.5%	0.1%	99.9%
  Massachusetts	11	Clinton	29.4%	63.6%	0.2%	99.8%
  Michigan	16	Trump	42.7%	49.8%	14.0%	86.0%
  Minnesota	10	Clinton	42.1%	51.2%	11.3%	88.7%
  Mississippi	6	Trump	52.5%	40.6%	86.7%	13.3%
  Missouri	10	Trump	50.1%	43.9%	90.6%	9.4%
  Montana	3	Trump	50.6%	42.8%	86.8%	13.2%
  Nebraska	5	Trump	0.0%	0.0%	98.9%	1.1%
  Nevada	6	Clinton	41.4%	47.7%	16.5%	83.5%
  New Hampshire	4	Clinton	43.0%	49.3%	26.2%	73.8%
  New Jersey	14	Clinton	36.5%	55.0%	2.5%	97.5%
  New Mexico	5	Clinton	41.3%	53.8%	5.2%	94.8%
  New York	29	Clinton	33.2%	59.8%	0.1%	99.9%
  North Carolina	15	Trump	46.3%	47.5%	46.1%	53.9%
  North Dakota	3	Trump	55.9%	38.0%	99.1%	0.9%
  Ohio	18	Trump	46.9%	47.9%	48.1%	51.9%
  Oklahoma	7	Trump	58.2%	34.3%	99.4%	0.6%
  Oregon	7	Clinton	39.0%	51.0%	7.4%	92.6%
  Pennsylvania	20	Trump	44.8%	49.7%	24.4%	75.6%
  Rhode Island	4	Clinton	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	99.2%
  South Carolina	9	Trump	50.4%	43.9%	87.5%	12.5%
  South Dakota	3	Trump	0.0%	0.0%	97.2%	2.8%
  Tennessee	11	Trump	53.6%	40.0%	96.2%	3.8%
  Texas	38	Trump	47.6%	46.0%	72.2%	27.8%
  Utah	6	Trump	49.7%	36.4%	96.4%	3.6%
  Vermont	3	Clinton	32.5%	55.7%	1.4%	98.6%
  Virginia	13	Clinton	40.7%	50.9%	4.2%	95.8%
  Washington	12	Clinton	34.7%	58.6%	1.0%	99.0%
  West Virginia	5	Trump	64.6%	32.4%	99.4%	0.6%
  Wisconsin	10	Trump	43.7%	50.3%	19.5%	80.5%
  Wyoming	3	Trump	0.0%	0.0%	99.8%	0.2%

• Major polls added to FiveThirtyEight’s poll database in the last 24 hours:group> class="news-rsf-table-string" /> class="news-rsf-table-string" /> class="news-rsf-table-string" /> class="news-rsf-table-date" /> class="news-rsf-table-date" /> class="news-rsf-table-string" /> class="news-rsf-table-number" /> class="news-rsf-table-number" data-rsf-precision="1" /> class="news-rsf-table-number" data-rsf-precision="1" />

  Pollster	Sponsors	State or Federal	Start Date	End Date	Population	Sample Size	Trump %	Biden %
  Emerson College	Nexstar	Federal	9/22/20	9/23/20	Likely voters	1000	46.6	49.6
  Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	NA	Nevada	9/20/20	9/23/20	Likely voters	810	41.0	52.0
  Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	NA	Nevada	9/20/20	9/23/20	Registered voters	911	40.0	50.0
  Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	NA	Ohio	9/20/20	9/23/20	Likely voters	830	45.0	50.0
  Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	NA	Ohio	9/20/20	9/23/20	Registered voters	907	44.0	49.0
  Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	NA	Pennsylvania	9/20/20	9/23/20	Likely voters	856	44.0	51.0
  Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	NA	Pennsylvania	9/20/20	9/23/20	Registered voters	910	43.0	51.0

NOTE: FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters according to their historical accuracy. For the purposes of this story, the lowest possible rating for a major poll is B-. In 2016, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote but missed with its Electoral College forecast.

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