Australian Path to Surplus Built on Revenue Surge

Australia's Budget in Charts Shows Revenue Key

(Bloomberg) -- Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison delivered his federal budget Tuesday evening in Canberra, seeking to boost the government's flagging poll ratings through a A$75 billion ($55 billion) infrastructure plan that aims to support growth and jobs.

He also sought to preserve the nation's cherished AAA credit score by forecasting a return to surplus in the 2020-21 fiscal year. 

The following charts give a quick rundown on the government forecasts will be the result for the nation's finances over the coming years. 

The Treasurer forecasts a slightly wider deficit than expected for the coming year, but projects that the country's 12th-straight shortfall (in 2019-20) will bring the government's run of red ink to an end.



Australia has gone from being a net creditor to a net debtor since the 2008 crisis brought it close to snapping decades of without a recession. Morrison is expecting further growth in the nation's obligations for some years before it peaks at A$375.1 billion in 2018-19. 

Digging down under the surface and it can be seen that, as has happened before, the forecast for a return to surplus relies heavily on a projected turnaround in revenue, not on a downturn for spending. As the chart above shows, expenditure is set to keep rising at a similar pace, but the government expects a surge in flows into its coffers to overtake that. 


And finally, the one thing that is set to keep on rising is the bill. Interest payments will be accelerating, not peaking. 

Now Australia's government will await the response from voters and credit rating firms. 


To contact the authors of this story: Garfield Clinton Reynolds in Sydney at greynolds1@bloomberg.net, Kimberley Painter in Sydney at kpainter1@bloomberg.net.

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