Pound Levels to Watch After U.K. Lawmakers Vote on Brexit Deal

(Bloomberg) -- Currency markets are likely to react sharply to the vote in Britain’s Parliament on Saturday on Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.

With the pound being the main barometer to the ups and downs of the Brexit saga, here is a guide to the levels to watch when markets reopen at the end of the weekend.

Bullish Outcome

• The first key pound technical resistance comes around $1.3150 and may be where a knee-jerk rally will stall; the 200-weekly moving average stands at $1.3159, while the midpoint of sterling’s losses since April 2018 comes at $1.3168 and its May 6 high is at $1.3185
• The next big stop doesn’t come until closer to $1.3400; the mid-March high at $1.3381 stands out, while the pivotal 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018-2019 downtrend comes at $1.3453 and a four-year trendline resistance currently stands above $1.3500

Bearish Outcome

• Investors short the pound may be looking to trim their exposure around the $1.2600 area; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally comes at $1.2596, with October’s breakout point seen at $1.2582, the high on Sept. 20; a key DeMark trendline comes at $1.2522
• The next potential barrier comes below $1.2400; the July 17 low at 1.2382 is in close proximity to $1.2353, the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the latest rally
• A triple-bottom in October around $1.2200 also stands out, while at the far end lies a 31-year low at $1.1841, the 2016 trough

Rangebound Outcome

• In case the pound fails to sustain a big move in either direction, short-term levels to watch for include pivot resistance at $1.3004; $1.2990, the high on Oct. 17; $1.2765, pivot support; and $1.2712, the 233-daily moving average
• NOTE: Vassilis Karamanis is an FX and rates strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice

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