U.S. Recession Chances in Next Two Years Top 60%, JPMorgan Says

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy has a greater than 50-50 chance of tipping into a recession in the next two years, according to a model tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The probability of a U.S. recession within one year is almost 28 percent, and rises to more than 60 percent over the next two years, researchers wrote in a note this week. Over the next three years, the odds are higher than 80 percent, according to the note.

Read More: Markets Show Recession Risk Falling, Why Don’t Investors Agree?

JPMorgan’s model includes indicators ranging from consumer and business sentiment to prime-age male labor participation, compensation growth, and durables and structures as a share of gross domestic product. The bank’s gauge is more pessimistic than a recession tracker maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which shows a 14.5 percent chance of a recession a year from now.

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