Consumer Confidence in U.S. Declines to Lowest Since 2017

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence fell in June to the lowest level since September 2017 as Americans became less upbeat about the economy and labor market amid trade tensions with China and Mexico.

The Conference Board’s index declined to 121.5, lower than all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey, data from the New York-based group showed Tuesday. The median projection called for a reading of 131. A gauge of the present situation decreased to a one-year low of 162.6, while the measure of expectations fell to 94.1.

Key Insights

• The decrease in sentiment adds to a mix of conflicting indicators of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady last week while signaling the possibility of a rate cut in July, indicating growing uncertainty about the outlook. Risks related to trade are a continuing theme, with President Donald Trump recently raising tariffs on goods from China while warning of possible levies on Mexican goods, a threat he later pulled back.
• The report follows an upbeat consumer comfort index last week, which reflected that Americans have strong views of their personal finances.

Official’s Comment

“The escalation in trade and tariff tensions earlier this month appears to have shaken consumers’ confidence,” Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “Although the index remains at a high level, continued uncertainty could result in further volatility in the index and, at some point, could even begin to diminish consumers’ confidence in the expansion.”

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• The share of respondents who said jobs were currently plentiful eased to 44% in June, a three-month low. The share of those who said jobs were hard to get climbed to 16.4%, the highest since November 2017.
• Plans to buy new autos fell to a more than one-year low, while plans to purchase appliances dropped to the lowest level since the beginning of 2015.
• The share of consumers expecting lower interest rates a year from now climbed to 11.8%, the highest since July 2016.

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