U.K. Economy on Course to Grow 0.3% in Third Quarter, Niesr Says

(Bloomberg) --

The U.K. economy is on track to defy concerns about an imminent recession and grow 0.3% in the third quarter, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Niesr said that recent surveys indicate flat output in August, with service sector expansion being offset by contractions in manufacturing and construction.

Even so, Director of Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting Garry Young sounded a cautious note on how long growth can continue. “Only the services sector is expanding, primarily to meet higher demand from consumers driven by increased household incomes fueled by rising real wages. But there is a limit to how much further real wages can grow without a pick-up in investment and productivity, and this seems unlikely in the near term,” he said.

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