Recession in 9 Months, Fed's Confab, Australia Wobbles: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to Monday, Asia. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• A recession could begin in nine months if President Donald Trump pushes to impose 25% tariffs on additional $300 billion of Chinese imports and China retaliates, Morgan Stanley says. Meanwhile, the impact of Trump’s tariff hike on Chinese imports is beginning to ripple through supply chains
• Fed officials might have good reason to pat themselves on the back when they gather in Chicago this week -- instead, they’ll be taking a second look at everything they do. Here’s why the Fed’s rethinking its toolkit
• China’s government says it’s willing to work with the U.S. to end an escalating trade war but blames Trump’s administration for the collapse in talks
• The world’s most enduring growth story is beginning to wobble
• Central banks may soon be back saving the world economy beset by an escalating trade war
• Trump contradicted two of his top aides, saying Sunday that “companies and jobs” returning to the U.S. would be a key outcome from his decision to impose import tariffs on goods coming from Mexico
• Philip Lane is starting his first week as the ECB’s top economist -- and it’s a big one
• Indian investors already facing a much-anticipated central bank decision this week will now have to juggle the implications of an economic soft patch and Donald Trump making good on his trade threat against the nation

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