(Bloomberg) -- Michigan, a key 2020 election battleground which was vital to President Donald Trump winning the White House, faces the highest risk of suffering a recession of any state in the U.S., according to analysis by LendingTree Inc.
The Charlotte, North Carolina-based firm compared the growth rate in Philadelphia Fed’s monthly economic indexes that track current conditions to determine states most at risk of a downturn. It found that Michigan was the most vulnerable with a 59% probability of experiencing weak economic fundamentals in the fourth quarter.
Hawaii and Montana were seen as the next most at risk. Nebraska, Oregon and Idaho had the lowest odds of economic weakness. The vast majority of U.S. states are not facing a big risk of recession by the fourth quarter, according to the firm, which provides an online marketplace for loans.
That said, concern among Americans about a recession has been rising. Six in 10 saw a recession as either “very likely” or “somewhat likely” in the next year, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Michigan, a hub for an auto industry that has been troubled by uncertainty around U.S. trade policy, has seen its unemployment rise to 4.3% in July from 4% in March. The jobless rate for the entire nation was 3.7% in August. Statewide unemployment data lag national numbers by a month.
In other signs of fallout from the trade war, the Institute for Supply Management’s index of manufacturing activity showed a contraction in August -- the first since 2016 -- and states including Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have lost factory jobs in recent months.
All three had been reliable Democratic strongholds but flipped to Trump in 2016 and are viewed as top election battlegrounds in next year’s presidential race.
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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