Italy Recession Will Be Followed by Minimal Growth, Survey Says

(Bloomberg) -- Italy’s recession will drag on for the rest of this quarter and the economy will effectively stagnate this year, economists forecast.

Output in the euro region’s third-biggest economy will decline 0.1 percent in the three months through March, according to the median of 14 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. That compares with a 0.1 percent expansion in the previous poll.

Economists interviewed between March 8 to March 14 also expect Italian GDP to expand this year by only 0.1 percent, down from 0.5 percent foreseen in the previous survey. Low growth will return in the second quarter, according to the survey released Monday.

The economy may have its worst year since 2013, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said earlier this month. Paris-based OECD projected a 0.2 percent contraction in 2019, down from a 0.9 percent expansion estimated previously.

Italy slipped into a technical recession after contracting for a second straight quarter in the three months through December. Still there have been some positive signs in recent economic data, including a higher-than-expected jump in January’s industrial production.

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.