India’s Inflation at 7.35% Exceeds All Estimates as Food Surges

(Bloomberg) -- India’s headline inflation surged to a more than five-year high in December, breaching the central bank’s 6% tolerance limit and will likely keep monetary policy makers in pause mode for longer.

Consumer prices rose 7.35% in December from a year earlier, the Statistics Ministry said in a statement on Monday. That’s faster than the 6.7% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 37 economists and the steepest gain since July 2014.

Key Insights

• The gains were driven by rising cost of everything from food to fuel and medicines to mobile tariffs. Food price inflation accelerated 14.1%, led by a surge in vegetable costs
• Inflation breaching the upper end of the Reserve Bank of India’s 2%-6% target band is likely to keep the Monetary Policy Committee on pause mode in February, after it unexpectedly held rates in December citing “much higher than expected” growth in prices
• Price stability is the central bank’s prime objective as persistently high inflation disproportionately affects the poor, Governor Shaktikanta Das said last week. That has turned the focus on the government’s annual budget due Feb. 1 for measures to boost economic growth
• Asia’s third-largest economy is set to expand at the slowest pace since 2009, according to an official forecast

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• Fuel and light prices rose 0.7%, housing prices gained 4.3%, clothing and footwear prices rose 1.5%, while food and beverage prices rose 12.16%
• To read the full statement on consumer prices, click here

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