Goldman Puts 30% Chance of Trump Tariffs on All Chinese Imports

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There’s about a 30% chance that U.S. President Donald Trump slaps tariffs on the roughly $300 billion of Chinese imports that aren’t yet targeted, says Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

While Trump has signaled that the paperwork has started for such a process and Goldman expects a notice could come within a fortnight, implementation could take anywhere up to three months, analysts led by Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said in a note.

The time before then will likely see a deal being reached, they reckon.

"That said, while we believe the White House is not that likely to implement the next round of tariffs (30% probability), we believe the risk has risen somewhat now that this latest round of tariffs has at least technically taken effect," the analysts said.

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