Fed Model Shows Recession Risk Still Low, But Increasing

(Bloomberg) -- With a volatile 2018 almost in the books, it’s a good time to look forward to the year ahead for the U.S. economy. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York gauge puts the chances of a recession at almost 16 percent a year from now, according to the latest available data. While it’s the highest since November 2008, it’s well below the peak of that year.

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