China’s Credit Supply Rebounds in November After Seasonal Slump

(Bloomberg) -- China’s credit growth rebounded from October’s slump, with banks lending more than expected and a rise in corporate bond issuance boosting total credit.

Aggregate financing was 1.75 trillion yuan ($249 billion), the People’s Bank of China said Tuesday. That compares to about 619 billion yuan in October and 1.6 trillion yuan in November 2018. The median estimate of economists was 1.485 trillion yuan. Financial institutions offered 1.39 trillion yuan of new loans in the month, versus a projected 1.2 trillion yuan.

Key Insights

• Broad M2 money supply grew 8.2% from a year earlier.
• Shadow banking continued to shrink, dropping 106.1 billion yuan in total: entrusted loans fell 95.9 billion yuan, trust loans dropped 67.3 billion yuan, and undiscounted banker’s acceptances rose 57.1 billion yuan.
• The stock of outstanding credit was 221.28 trillion yuan. That was 10.7% larger than a year ago, the same growth rate as in October.
• The growth in M2 and aggregate social financing growth was faster than nominal GDP growth and that shows the “strengthening of counter-cyclical adjustments has started to support economic growth,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Hong Kong. “The effect of fiscal stimulus hasn’t been fully reflected,” he said, adding he expects that to kick in next year, along with accommodative monetary policy.

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