The Bank of England’s policy doves look unlikely to be blown off course by Boris Johnson’s decisive election victory, with most analysts expecting Michael Saunders and Jonathan Haskel to repeat their calls for lower interest rates this week.
The Monetary Policy Committee will vote 7-2 to hold rates at 0.75% in Thursday’s decision, according to 16 of 21 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Three banks even see another official joining the chorus, with Gertjan Vlieghe the most likely new dissenter.
Another split vote would be an indication that policy makers remain concerned about the U.K.’s outlook, even after Johnson’s win all but guaranteed the nation will leave the European Union with a transition agreement on Jan. 31. The focus may soon switch to another deadline, with the U.K. needing to secure a trade deal with the EU by the end of next year, unless Johnson abandons his pledge not to ask for an extension.
The BOE has been in a quiet period since November’s decision -- when Saunders and Haskel first voted for a cut -- meaning investors have had no insight into whether the data since then has changed officials’ thinking. Carney will hold a press conference on the bank’s Financial Stability Review on Monday after U.K. markets close.
Recent economic reports haven’t been too encouraging, with data in recent weeks showing output flatlined in the three months through October, and the labor market’s near record strength is starting to turn.
IHS Markit said U.K. factories posted the weakest performance in more than seven years in December, increasing the chances that the economy will shrink in the fourth quarter.
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