Big Reads on Economics: Glimmers of Hope for World Economy

(Bloomberg) --

The global economy may be shaking off the recession warnings which plagued it just weeks ago, leaving key central banks with some room to pause the stimulus campaign which marked most of 2019.

Here’s a collection of this week’s analysis and enterprise from Bloomberg Economics:

Worst May Be Over for Global Economy Amid Signs of Stabilization
Central Banks Hitting ‘Peak Dovishness’ Prick Bond-Market Bubble
Smartphone Rebound Sparks Signs of Life Into Asia’s Tech Cycle
Abenomics Shows ECB Why Fiscal Backup Can’t Ensure Inflation

The world economy could be edging up, and into stabilization mode, starting with a global factory gauge that’s finally seeing brighter days, Enda Curran and Paul Gordon write. The dovish monetary policy wave could be making its mark, with financial markets also looking up, as say Liz Capo McCormick, John Ainger and David Goodman. Meanwhile, a revival of Asia’s technology cycle could help fuel a rebound, as Enda and Sam Kim outline. Despite the upbeat tone, Yuko Takeo looks at the lessons from Japan.

Fed Risks More Trump Anger With Message That Rates Are on Hold
Trump on Course to Win 2020 Re-Election If Economic Models Right
Battleground States Trump Won in 2016 Face Economic Woes Ahead
The Sanders or Warren Wealth Tax (Podcast)

Seeing the U.S. economy in a “good place,” Federal Reserve policy makers risk angering the White House further with their stand-pat stance, Rich Miller reports. Long-standing economic models that have proven a solid track record of predicting White House winners are boding well for President Donald Trump’s re-election, Katia Dmitrieva reports. Not so fast, the data for battleground states that Trump won in 2016 show, according to analysis by Alex Tanzi and Gregory Korte. Reporting by Katia also features on this week’s Stephanomics podcast, which examines how a wealth tax might work in the U.S. and looks at lessons from Sweden and France.

The World’s Protesters Want to Soak the Rich, But That’s Not All

Protests that are increasingly popping up in corners of the globe relate back to sharp divisions between rich and poor, Ben Holland writes from Washington. An early predictor of who would win and lose from globalization, former World Bank economist Branko Milanovic sees something else primarily fueling the unrest: people feeling left out of the decision-making.

Modi’s Trumpian Trade Exit May Be a Tactical Retreat for India
Toxic Air Adds to India’s Woes as Economy Goes From Bad to Worse

The world’s biggest regional trade deal is now penciled in, but not without its own dramas as India exited the pact this week to leave 15 members in final drafting mode. Iain Marlow and Shruti Srivastava track the domestic pressures that led Prime Minister Narendra Modi to pull out of the deal, especially while the economy slows further and unemployment soars.
The heavy air in India’s capital and beyond is adding to the economy’s piling woes, with an ailing shadow banking industry, automobile sector crisis, and shrinking manufacturing among them, Vrishti Beniwal writes from New Delhi.

Why Indonesia Failed to Cash in on the China-U.S. Trade War

As Southeast Asian economies scramble to pick up new business on the sidelines of the U.S.-China trade war, Indonesia is falling short of its potential on that front, Karlis Salna illustrates out of Jakarta. Foreign direct investment that lags regional peers, uneven progress in easing regulations, rigid labor rules, and shortfalls in infrastructure are holding back the region’s biggest economy.

Kicking Turkish Debt Habit May Wreck Erdogan’s Growth Dreams
Brazil’s Massive Tax Code May Face Moment of Reckoning

Turkey has the unenviable twin goals of getting off a debt addiction while keeping up hopes of economic growth, Asli Kandemir and Cagan Koc report from Istanbul. Last year’s currency shock looms large as businesses turn to saving after almost a decade of credit-fueled expansion. Meantime in Brazil, Simone Preissler Iglesias and Murilo Fagundes report on the gargantuan size of the local tax code.

In Angola, a 35-Year-Old Woman Steps Up to Boost the Economy

Henrique Almeida and Rene Vollgraaff introduce readers to Vera Daves de Sousa, the 35-year-old woman just named finance minister of Angola.

Although it boasts Africa’s richest woman in Isabel dos Santos -- the former president’s daughter -- Angola has typically scored poorly on gender equality, ranking 125 out of 149 countries in the World Economic Forum’s 2018 gender gap report.

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