Goldman Sachs Growth Tracker Shows Global Slowdown Is Contained

(Bloomberg) -- The moderation in global economic growth appears to be contained, according to a tracker by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The firm built a gauge of global real gross domestic product that uses monthly indicators to assess the flow of information and produce “nowcasts” of yet-to-be-released growth data.

Over the past two years, the gauge picked up the world economy’s upswing and subsequent softening. First-quarter data signal a divergence between developed and emerging economies, Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note.

“While developed markets are set for a weak quarter, emerging market real GDP growth looks set to rebound in the first quarter of 2018 from a comparatively weak final quarter in 2017,” they said. “The global GDP growth moderation therefore looks contained, with GDP tracking at 4.1 percent on an annualized basis.”

Goldman’s analysts note that the latest data took a hit from temporary negatives such as poor weather and volatility linked to China’s week-long Lunar New Year holiday.

“We therefore look for a rebound in second-quarter GDP growth, especially in the U.S., and continue to forecast global real GDP growth of 4.1 percent in 2018,” the economists wrote.

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