Haryana Elections: BJP And Khattar’s Rise From ‘Outsider’ To The ‘Fourth Lal’

Amidst all this, the low-profile chief minister, Manohar Lal Khattar, is sitting pretty and has gathered the tag of being an honest and able administrator. Coupled with the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and riding on the performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP hopes to retain power in the state.

A recent opinion poll by ABP projects the BJP winning 78 out of 90 seats. The standard note of caution, opinion polls have gone wrong in the past.

Historically, the party which wins a majority of Haryana’s seats in the Lok Sabha elections goes on to win the subsequent assembly elections and form the government in the state.

How BJP Scripted Its 2014 Win In Haryana

Unlike other states in north India, BJP had not been able to establish a strong base in Haryana’s multi-polar political map, before 2014. In election after election, it failed to make a mark in a state whose politics is dominated by Jats. BJP’s best performance in the pre-Modi era was in 1996 when it won 11 assembly seats, in alliance with Bansi Lal. In 2000, it hopped on to Chautala’s bandwagon. Before the 2005 state elections, BJP parted ways with INLD and has since followed the policy of going it alone.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won seven out of Haryana’s 10 seats, riding on Narendra Modi’s popularity, corruption charges against UPA-II, and double anti-incumbency against the Congress which was coming off 10 years in power – both at the centre, and in the state, after Bhupinder Singh Hooda's two terms as chief minister. In the state elections held six months after the Lok Sabha polls, BJP continued its winning streak. With the Modi government at the centre enjoying a honeymoon period, the BJP bagged 47 assembly seats in Haryana, 12-times its 2009 tally!

This was unusual for a state where politics has been oriented towards big personalities and a few powerful families.

Shifts In The Jat Vote

Caste and identity politics have played a big role in Haryana politics since the state’s formation in 1966. Jats account for 27 percent of the population and own more than half of the cultivable land, making them the most influential community. The state has had a Jat chief minister for over 60 percent of the time since 1966, according to a Times of India report.

Jats are concentrated in rural areas of the state and are predominantly agriculturists, and have the largest presence in western Haryana.

The Jat vote has oscillated between various regional parties and, in recent times, the Congress. In 1996, the Bhajan Lal-led Congress lost due to the alienation of Jats, which switched support to the Haryana Vikas Congress led by Bansi Lal. In 2000, the Jat vote moved to Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal.

During his tenure, Chautala was seen as trying to cement the legacy of his father Devi Lal over Chotu Ram (the ideologue of Jat peasantry) by building parks and statues. This irked the community, which then voted for the Congress, which was led by Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda in the 2005 and 2009 state elections. A large share of Jats returned to INLD in the 2014 state elections, as Hooda was accused of neglecting other areas of the state in favour of his homeland Rohtak, and faced political charges of alleged corruption in land deals.

Does 2019 Mark The End Of ‘Jat Versus Non-Jat’?

The BJP has always been considered a non-Jat party in Haryana. It lacked a Jat leader of the stature of Chautala, Bansi Lal, and Hooda. In the 2014 state elections, BJP won without a strong leader from the dominant Jat community. It imported Jat leaders from the Congress as well as INLD. Six of its 47 MLAs were rebels. The BJP formulated a strategy of consolidating non-Jat votes in its favour by targeting OBCs and Dalits.

That Prime Minister Modi hails from an OBC community also may have helped the party woo this crucial vote bloc.

As a result, BJP received 47 percent support from Brahmins, 40 percent of OBCs and 36 percent of Sikhs in the 2014 assembly election. 20 percent of Dalits also backed BJP due to the support that was announced by the Dera Sachcha Sauda. The Dera has some 60 lakh followers in the northern and the western parts of the state. BJP won a simple majority with only 17 percent Jats supporting it. It won just 9 of the 37 seats influenced by Jats.

Much like right now, in 2014 too, the BJP pushed its ‘PM + CM double-engine’ theory of growth. 57 percent of respondents in a CSDS post-poll survey in 2014 felt that it is beneficial to have the same party running governments in the state and at the centre.

The 2019 Lok Sabha elections mark a watershed in the history of Haryana politics. The split in the Chautala family and as a result in INLD, coupled with allegations of improper land deals by Congress Jat leader Hooda forced a rethink among Jat voters. The community which used to shape the state’s political destiny of the state had been forced out of the corridors of power by BJP in 2014. Subsequently, the BJP’s gesture of providing reservation to Jats, which was struck down by the courts, may have swayed the community, that at least the BJP was trying to meet its long-standing demand. The Modi government’s 10 percent reservation for economically-weaker sections was welcomed by a section of Jats in Haryana.

The BJP had made a calculated move to preserve their dominance and share a slice of the power pie. This has created an impregnable vote bloc for the BJP. Its support base, which was lopsided with a larger chunk of upper-caste and OBC voters is now more balanced, with one-fourth votes each from upper-caste, OBCs, and Jats. Perhaps for the first time in Haryana, Jats and non-Jats voted for the same party in the state.

The Rise Of The Fourth ‘Lal’ – Manohar Lal Khattar

Haryana politics has been dominated by three Lals – Devi Lal, Bhajan Lal, and Bansi Lal. The three leaders and their descendants have been chief ministers of the state for two-thirds of the time since 1966. After its victory in 2014, BJP appointed Manohar Lal Khattar, a low-profile, RSS pracharak, and long-time Modi aide, as the Chief Minister. Khattar belongs to the Punjabi Khatri community which accounts for 6-8 percent population of the state. BJP had taken a calculated risk in doing this, as the decision irked the influential Jat community.

By 2019, Manohar Lal Khattar leads the popularity ratings, with 48 percent of respondents in an ABP poll choosing him as their preferred chief minister. The combined numbers for Hooda and Dushyant Chautala are at half of Khattar’s approval ratings.

It is also a big deal because Khattar struggled during the early years of his tenure. His handling of the arrest of Sant Rampal and Bab Ram Rahim was criticised. He was also unable to prevent violence and the loss of lives during the Jat agitation of 2016.

At one point, there were reports that Khattar may be removed. People started questioning Modi’s choice of making an inexperienced leader the chief minister. Today, the underdog CM is quite popular, after those initial setbacks. The Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao program has been a huge success in the state, with the child sex ratio crossing 900.

Bipolar Fight Turning Into Multi-Cornered Contest

In the Jind by-poll held just before the Lok Sabha elections, Dushyant Chautala of JJP, finished as runner-up ahead of Congress’ Randeep Surjewala. However, in the general elections, Congress regained its second position, helped by its position as a national party. The INLD received a drubbing in both polls. Its vote share declined by 22.5 percent in the general elections, with most of this moving to the BJP. With local factors at play, JJP is likely to give a tough challenge to Congress for the status of being the primary opposition party.

To sum up, a weakened opposition and a split of votes in a multi-cornered contest, coupled with strong popularity numbers for Prime Minister Modi and Chief Minister Khattar, give the latter a shot at equaling Bhajan Lal’s record of longest-serving non-Jat chief minister of Haryana.

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was a corporate and investment banker.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of BloombergQuint or its editorial team.