Delhi Elections: How Will Voters Judge Kejriwal’s Shift From Insurgent To Incumbent?

The magnitude of the Aam Aadmi Party’s victory in 2015 was huge. It goes beyond the seat tally of 67 out of 70. The average margin of victory was 22 percent or over 28,000 votes per seat. This means that even in a 20 percent negative swing that switches entirely to the next contender, the AAP would—ceteris paribus—still have its nose ahead.

• At a 15 percent swing away from the AAP and assuming all this is toward the BJP, the AAP may still win 53 of Delhi’s 70 seats.
• At a 20 percent swing, the AAP tally would reduce sharply, to around 33. It might emerge as the single-largest party, and at just two seats short of the halfway mark, still form the government.

Change In Strategy: A Toned-Down, Non-Confrontational Kejriwal

After coming a distant second in the 2017 Municipal Corporation of Delhi elections, the Aam Aadmi Party changed its strategy. Earlier it had followed a policy of confrontation with the central government, accusing the Lieutenant Governor of Delhi of being a puppet of the centre and not letting the state government implement its development agenda. The MCD results suggested that many voters didn’t appreciate this approach. Kejriwal was seen as behaving like an opposition leader while being in power.

As a result and for quite some time now, Kejriwal has toned down and refrained from personal attacks on the Prime Minister. He has now been focusing on a positive campaign. The dharnas and controversies have given way to the delivery of promises. The AAP campaign is focusing mainly on the work done on subsidised power, free water for the poor, mohalla clinics, and the revamping of government schools.

Kejriwal has also remained silent on the Citizenship Amendment Act and has not openly supported the anti-CAA protests or the opposition meetings, at the risk of earning the ire of minorities. Had he done so, he would have walked into the BJP's trap of nationalising the elections, and surrendered AAP’s advantage in localised polls.

Opinion Polls: Note Of Caution

Initial opinion polls suggest that AAP will retain power with a big majority. However, the opinion polls on Delhi's electorate have to be taken with a pinch of salt. In 2013 as well as 2015, all opinion polls conducted a month before polls went wrong. In-fact, till just one week before voting in 2015, opinion polls were predicting a BJP victory. The result was completely the other way.

Note that chief ministers with high popularity ratings have lost recent elections, like in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Undecided voters hold the key. A C-Voter survey indicates that this number is around 16 percent in Delhi.

Opinion polls for the recently-concluded state elections have been off by a big margin. In Haryana, all opinion polls bar one predicted a big BJP victory, while the result was a hung assembly. In Maharashtra, the actual BJP-Sena seat tally was 22 percent lower than projected. In Jharkhand, many polls predicted a hung assembly with the BJP as the single-largest party, but the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress mahagathbandhan won a clear majority. Polls tend to be biased in favour of the incumbent.

A Different AAP, A Different Campaign

While the AAP is seen as favourite to win, this campaign is quite different from those in 2013 and 2015. Back then, the AAP was still riding on the tail-effects of the ‘India Against Corruption’ movement led by Anna Hazare and Kejriwal. When it turned into a political party, the AAP offered voters an alternative to the Congress-BJP binary. It had an array of leaders like Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav, Kumar Vishwas, and Kapil Mishra who campaigned extensively. The “one chance for Kejriwal” plank worked.

Power is concentrated in the hands of Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia. People who opposed their style have been shown the door. Kejriwal has also been seen on the same dias as leaders who have been convicted or alleged of corruption charges, diluting his previous crusader image.

The aam aadmi of Delhi was quite taken by the innovative methods of the AAP and Kejriwal – taking public opinion for distribution of tickets and other big decisions, public funding etc. Enough voters were fed up with the existing political class and turned to ‘someone who was just like them’.

Running On The Report Card

In December 2013 and then in February 2015, the aam aadmi voted to take power away from the established parties. The AAP responded to these mandates with commitments of no horse trading, no security for the chief minister or other ministers, no government bungalows, transparent funding etc. There was hope that this would usher in a new brand of politics. But that insurgent is now the incumbent.

Pet projects like the Jan Lokpal Bill have not seen the light of day. Subsidy politics doesn’t guarantee success as we have seen in the past. Congress is striving for a revival and may get back some of the votes lost to AAP. Voters tend to hold their MLAs to account for any non-performance or neglect. This can lead to a situation where people may be happy with the chief minister, but unhappy with MLAs. Voters that want to teach under-performing local MLAs a lesson, in turn, put at risk the chances of a popular chief minister coming back to power.

Voters have a lot in common with stock market investors. Money is put into stocks based on a company's future cash flows. Similarly, voters seek a party’s vision and blueprint of the party for the future. Taking a cue, AAP has released ‘Kejriwal ka Guarantee Card’ which has 10 promises on issues ranging from health, education, electricity, water, pollution. The BJP is yet to release its manifesto, despite running a campaign, ‘Mera Dilli Mera Sujhao’.

The AAP is currently seen as the favourite to win the state elections. While it may not be able to repeat its 2015 performance, it enjoys a good buffer. Kejriwal was seen by people as a symbol of the power of the ‘aam aadmi’. Does he hold the same charm five years down? The people's judgment on his performance shall be known on Feb. 11.

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was a corporate and investment banker.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of BloombergQuint or its editorial team.