BJP’s Delhi Dilemma: The National Capital Isn’t A National Election

Candidate nominations for the much-awaited elections in Delhi have been filed. The Aam Aadmi Party, which swept the polls bagging all but three seats in 2015, is hoping to retain power on the back of work it has done on bijli-sadak-paani issues. The Bharatiya Janata Party, on the other hand, is hoping to wrest power highlighting the failures of what it sees as a confrontationalist Arvind Kejriwal government. There is not much chatter around the Indian National Congress and its fortunes in this contest, though it hopes to play the role of kingmaker like it did in 2013.

AAP launched its campaign with ‘Achche beetey paanch saal, lagey raho Kejriwal’. After the jolt in Jharkhand, BJP will be holding 5,000 public meetings in 20 days, which will be attended by not more than 200 people each, instead of the grand rallies which have been its trademark style.

BJP’s Lok Sabha Versus Vidhan Sabha Gulf

In the assembly elections of 2008, 2013 and 2015, as well as the Lok Sabha election of 2009, the BJP’s vote share remained in the 32-36 percent range. However, in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, its vote share jumped to 46 percent, and then to an unprecedented 57 percent in the 2019 general elections.

This was primarily on account of three factors:

The ‘Modi Factor’: 27 percent of neutral or ideologically-unaligned voters in Delhi backed the BJP in 2014. This number went up to 32 percent in 2019. As a result, the BJP recorded a 12 percentage point increase in its vote share in 2014, compared to the last assembly election. This then went up to 18 percent in 2019, over the 2015 share.
Upper caste and Other Backward Classes voters consolidated in favour of the BJP in both the Lok Sabha elections. The 2019 surge was aided by further traction among upper-caste (+5 percent), OBCs (+10 percent), SCs (+10 percent) vis-à-vis the 2014 general elections.
The AAP vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections declined 15 percent from its 2014 performance. After the novelty factor worked for the AAP in 2013, in subsequent elections, voters seem to have made a clear choice, demarcating between national and state elections with Modi as prime minister and Kejriwal for chief minister.

In the state elections held in February 2015, just 10 months after Delhi cast its Lok Sabha votes, BJP’s vote share fell back to its previous ‘normal’ of 33 percent. This is likely to have been a result of Modi’s absence from the ballot, as well as a section of its upper caste voters including banias as well as OBCs, middle class and Dalits voting for the AAP.

The big question is whether BJP will be able to retain a vote share that’s close to its 2019 Lok Sabha performance in these 2020 state elections. The three state elections held after last year’s Lok Sabha polls have not yielded encouraging results for the party. Right after a strong Lok Sabha performance in April-May, the BJP lost significant support in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand, suggesting a localisation or split-vote effect.

According to the Lokniti-CSDS survey conducted in Delhi after the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, 24 percent of BJP voters at the Lok Sabha level said they preferred AAP at the state level.

State Versus National Issues

Over much of the last six years, the BJP has followed a strategy of nationalising state elections. This is done by raising national issues; banking on the promise—and then the performance—of a government led by Narendra Modi; and even when he’s the incumbent, projecting Modi as the harbinger of change.

This mostly worked while the party was in opposition and the principal challenger, offering voters—to borrow from the Obama lexicon—hope and change. But it hasn’t worked as well where the BJP is the party in power at the state level.

The Axis-MyIndia survey for Maharashtra showed that only 5 percent of respondents took national issues like Triple Talaq, and the abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35 A, into consideration while voting.

In the 2015 state elections of Delhi and Bihar that the BJP was seen as favourite to win, this strategy didn’t work. The party will need to raise local issues and project local leadership, which it is currently struggling with. Realising this, the party has given tickets to four former mayors and six sitting councilors.

Home Minister Amit Shah with BJP candidates in Delhi, on Jan. 24, 2020. (Photograph: PTI)

BJP’s CM Candidate Troubles

The Delhi BJP went into these polls in a similar situation to what it faced in the 2015 elections: to declare a Chief Minister candidate or not? In 2015 Kiran Bedi was projected as the BJP’s CM candidate just two weeks before polling day. This year, at a convention of BJP booth-level workers on Jan. 5, Amit Shah said on the question of CM candidate, “the media asks me what will happen in Delhi. Delhi is going to have a BJP government under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.” If we go by 2015, this may not be the last word on this matter.

Despite Shah’s words, the Prime Minister has not been seen doing as many rallies yet as expected. He has also been busy with pre-budget meetings. In his absence, Amit Shah is holding fort as he launched the party’s election campaign on Jan. 23.

The truth is that BJP lacks local leaders who can match the charisma of Arvind Kejriwal.

BJP leaders in Delhi unveiling campaign material seeking public suggestions, on Jan 16, 2020. (Photograph: PTI)

State elections are now increasingly contested in a presidential-style as well. A third of all voters in 2015 made their decision based on a party’s CM candidate.

Making this election a ‘Kejriwal versus Modi’ battle again is fraught with risks. Modi cannot possibly be the chief minister of Delhi. The prolonged economic slowdown might mean that BJP may also struggle among its core middle-class support base. Hence the party is following a cocktail strategy of presidential-style (Modi versus Kejriwal) as well as localisation (tickets to mayors/councilors/small public meetings).

Kejriwal has often taunted the BJP that this election is one chief minister (himself) up against seven BJP CM candidates (Manoj Tiwari, Harsh Vardhan, Hardeep Singh Puri, Pravesh Singh Verma, Meenakshi Lekhi, Vijender Gupta and Vijay Goel).

The C-Voter survey suggests that Kejriwal enjoys the support of 70 percent of Delhi’s electorate as the most-suitable CM candidate. As earlier, it must be noted that incumbent chief ministers do get higher opinion poll ratings because of better immediate recall and in cases where the opposition has not declared its CM candidate.

In politics, hawa, or political sentiment plays a crucial role. The BJP, which was cruising along till October-November, has started to face reversals. It failed to form the government in Maharashtra. The bad news on the economy continues, protests have been taking place throughout the country against the Citizenship Amendment Act and violence on university campuses. Rural-farm distress led to the defeat in the tribal state of Jharkhand, where its sitting chief minister lost his seat. Will the next blow for the BJP land from the hands of Arvind Kejriwal again?

The next article in this series will study the Aam Aadmi Party’s strategy in this election.

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was a corporate and investment banker.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of BloombergQuint or its editorial team.