China’s slew of economic readings Saturday are forecast to show the rebound at the end of the first quarter consolidated in April, suggesting policy makers may remain sidelined for a while longer as curbing debt and reforming overcapacity industries take priority.
Industrial output is forecast to rise 6.5 percent in April from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists late Thursday. That would be a pullback from March’s sharp post-Chinese-new-year-holiday bounce, though stronger than most 2015 readings.
Retail sales are seen increasing 10.6 percent in April from a year earlier. That would add to evidence -- including a 39 percent surge in revenue for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. in the March quarter -- that Chinese shoppers remain a pillar of strength for the economy.
Fixed-asset investment is seen climbing 11 percent in the January-April period from a year earlier as stimulus continues to filter through the economy.
The reports -- scheduled for release Saturday at 1:30 p.m. in Beijing -- come as global investors look for cues on the sustainability of a debt-fueled pick up in March and as top policy makers signal a shift away from further stimulus. China’s communist leaders took to their main mouthpiece this week to repudiate credit-fueled growth and re-emphasize structural reforms.
Stronger-than-forecast readings may add to economist projections China’s policy makers will refrain from additional monetary easing. Weaker readings may do the reverse, suggesting March’s rebound was a temporary pick up after the nation got back to work after February’s week-long lunar new year holiday.
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