(Bloomberg) -- Chinese stocks, already the world’s best performers this year, are still a great bet, especially when weighed against the U.S., according to Citigroup Inc.
American stocks are now pricing in 2019 profit growth that exceeds consensus expectations, amid a backdrop of negative earnings revisions and weakening economic data momentum, Citigroup strategists including Jeremy Hale wrote in a note Thursday. Conversely, Chinese earnings growth could re-accelerate in the second half, and get a boost from a resolution to the trade war, they said.
The S&P 500 Index has broken below its medium-term uptrend against the Shanghai Composite Index, offering a technical rationale for the trade, in the group’s thinking. Meantime, the U.S. gauge has probably already got all the juice it can get out of the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot, they concluded.
“We think the macro tailwinds in 2019 support relative emerging market over developed market outperformance,” the strategists wrote. “We go long Chinese equities vs. the S&P 500 Index as ‘high octane’ EM/DM.”
The call comes after a more than 30 percent surge in the Shanghai Composite Index this year, about double the 15 percent gain in the U.S. benchmark.
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