The Countries That Could Have Surprise Elections in 2020

(Bloomberg Businessweek) -- These countries don’t have a nationwide vote scheduled in 2020, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be one.

Germany

Who’s in trouble?
Chancellor Angela Merkel
Why?
Her Christian Democratic Union has been losing support in national and regional elections. Merkel’s chosen successor as party chief, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, has taken much of the blame. Moreover, Merkel may not be in the best of health: She’s been seen uncontrollably shaking at multiple public events.
What would have to happen to trigger an election?
Merkel has said she’s in fine shape, but if she isn’t—or if the Social Democratic Party, which has been plumbing new depths in the polls, decides to pull out of her coalition government—she could still be forced to leave before her term ends in 2021.
Odds: 7 to 1

Israel

Who’s in trouble?
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Why?
After two elections—one in April, then a rerun in September—Netanyahu and his allies haven’t won enough parliamentary seats to form a coalition.
What would have to happen to trigger an election?
His main opponent, Benny Gantz of the Blue and White party, has a shot to rally legislators behind his bid for leadership. If that fails, parliament can try to nominate a new leader. And if that doesn’t work, the country will go back to the polls—yet again.
Odds: 5 to 2

Lebanon

Who’s in trouble?
Prime Minister Saad Hariri
Why?
Tensions over a stagnant economy and alleged official corruption exploded into mass demonstrations in mid-October after the prime minister’s government proposed a tax on internet-enabled voice calls such as those made over WhatsApp.
What would have to happen to trigger an election?
Hariri scrapped the tax and announced a slate of reforms, but that didn’t stop protesters from calling for his job. He said if they insisted on early elections, he wouldn’t object.
Odds: 2 to 1

Spain

Who’s in trouble?
Acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez
Why?
His Socialists won April’s general election, but Spain’s political map is so fragmented after years of factionalism and crisis that he couldn’t muster a majority. Sánchez is already facing another election—his fourth in as many years—on Nov. 10.
What would trigger yet another election?
Polls suggest Sánchez will win this time around yet still come nowhere near an outright majority. Even if he can find a partner to back him in a confidence vote, he could be forced into another ballot as soon as legislative politics get choppy.
Odds: Even

Sweden

Who’s in trouble?
Prime Minister Stefan Lofven
Why?
After a 2018 election failed to give either of the two traditional leading parties a majority in parliament, the prime minister was forced to form a minority government. So far he’s managed to stay in power thanks to an agreement with two opposition parties on the country’s budget, a deal designed to isolate the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats.
What would have to happen to trigger an election?
If the spending plan dies, Lofven will face two choices: He can govern on a budget put forward by opposition parties or call a snap election.
Odds: 3 to 1

United Kingdom

Who’s in trouble?
Prime Minister Boris Johnson
Why?
One word: Brexit. The country has been tearing itself apart over how to leave the European Union for more than three years, and his efforts to lance the political boil have caused more irritation. Johnson’s Conservative Party doesn’t have a majority in Parliament; while it has a healthy lead in polls, an election could be one of the most hotly contested in generations.
What would have to happen to trigger an election?
Johnson wants one, and if Parliament gets hung up on details of the EU divorce, the opposition Labour Party will almost certainly sign on.
Odds: 5 to 7

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