Swarmed by Maskless Crowds, Jacinda Ardern Is Set for Landslide Win

Ardern’s greatest strength as a politician is her authenticity and ability to relate to others. It has served her well during her first term, when the nation has faced some of its darkest moments—a terrorist attack by a white supremacist that left 51 dead, a volcanic eruption that killed 21, and most recently the Covid-19 pandemic. National elections are being held on Oct. 17, and polls predict a resounding victory for Ardern’s left-leaning Labour Party, despite a slumping economy and Ardern’s failure to deliver on key pledges such as fixing a housing crisis and lifting children out of poverty. There’s even a chance Labour could win an outright majority, which no party in New Zealand has done since the 1990s.

The opposition National Party is wooing voters with tax cuts and attacking Ardern for not making good on her promises. But so far, it hasn’t dented the prime minister’s popularity.

Ardern, 40, gained fame outside New Zealand as the world’s then-youngest female head of government, at 37, and as the first world leader to bring her baby to the UN General Assembly. Her rise to political stardom was rapid. As a member of parliament, she was thrust into the Labour Party’s top job just two months before the last election, in 2017. The party was at risk of a crushing defeat, so leader Andrew Little stepped down and handed Ardern the reins. In what became known as “Jacinda-mania,” she ignited the campaign and led Labour to an upset victory over National with the backing of two smaller parties.

Ardern’s talent for connecting with others is grounded in her humility, says James Shaw, co-leader of the Green Party, which supports her administration. “She didn’t want the job—Andrew Little had to twist her arm,” says Shaw. “If you look at some of these other world leaders, it’s all about them. For her, it’s all about everybody else.”

The daughter of a police officer, Ardern grew up in provincial New Zealand, including a small, run-down forestry town where she witnessed child poverty firsthand. She credits this with sparking an interest in politics. Brought up Mormon, she left the church in her early 20s because its views on gay rights clashed with hers. She has described herself as “socially liberal” and in a recent political debate admitted to smoking cannabis in her youth.

In 2018, Ardern became just the second elected world leader to give birth in office, after Pakistan’s Benazir Bhutto. Her partner, Clarke Gayford, juggled his career as host of a TV fishing show to be a stay-at-home father to their daughter, Neve.

Since then, Ardern’s steady, empathetic handling of crises has distinguished her as more than a trailblazer. On March 15 last year, a gunman went on a rampage at two mosques in the South Island city of Christchurch, killing 51 worshippers and livestreaming the atrocity on social media. It was the worst mass shooting in New Zealand’s modern history. Ardern immediately reformed gun laws, banning the weapons used in the attack. An image of her wearing a hijab in solidarity with those affected helped tamp down outrage toward New Zealand that was brewing in Muslim nations.

When the coronavirus struck in February and March, Ardern responded by imposing one of the strictest lockdowns in the world, effectively closing down the economy even as the country had notched barely 200 cases. This was bold. But at daily press conferences, she calmly explained the reasoning behind it and other government decisions and urged New Zealanders—the “team of five million”—to observe the rules and “be kind.” She would often follow up at night with Facebook Live posts from home, wearing a casual sweater and looking directly into her phone as she reiterated key messages. It was a master class in communication, and it worked: The public broadly supported the restrictions, and the pandemic was kept at bay.

It helped that New Zealand has natural advantages in the fight against Covid-19, as a small island nation at the bottom of the world. A second outbreak in its largest city, Auckland—seized on by U.S. President Donald Trump as a “big surge”—was quickly brought under control with a regional lockdown. To date, the nation has tallied just over 1,500 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and only 25 deaths.

New Zealand’s daily life is mostly back to normal, with no pandemic restrictions. Now, as voters look at the carnage the virus is still causing elsewhere, Ardern’s success against Covid-19 is shielding her from criticism, says Lara Greaves, who teaches New Zealand politics at the University of Auckland. “She’s been an excellent leader through crisis, has displayed great communication and the right amount of empathy,” Greaves says. “If it weren’t for Covid, the election would definitely be a lot more about her policy failings.”

Ardern came to power promising to address growing inequalities and close the gap between rich and poor. But her governing coalition ditched plans for a capital gains tax over concerns it was too politically risky, and a program to build tens of thousands of affordable homes fell well short of goals. House prices have continued to rise as demand outstrips supply, climbing 10% in the past two years alone. Government policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions and clean up rivers were criticized by environmental groups as too weak. Perhaps most galling for Ardern, her administration has made little progress on reducing child poverty.

“It’s all very well to have grand plans, but there’s no point if you can’t actually put it into practice,” National Party leader Judith Collins, 61, said in a recent interview. “I would be someone people can rely on. And that’s the difference. I won’t say I can do something if I can’t do it.”

Speaking to Bloomberg Businessweek on the sidelines of her Oct. 1 campaign event, Ardern defended her administration, saying it has laid the foundations for change. “Ruth Bader Ginsburg said that change, real change, comes a step at a time,” she said, paraphrasing the recently deceased U.S. Supreme Court justice.

As the pandemic keeps its borders closed, decimating a tourism industry that was once its biggest foreign exchange earner, New Zealand faces immense challenges. But in guiding her country so competently through a string of unprecedented crises, Ardern has won voters’ trust.

“She’s a mother and she’s led the country through disaster after disaster,” said Bronwyn Eriksson, the owner of a bakery in Nelson who offered Ardern a pastry during her walkabout there. “She’s such a bright light. Why wouldn’t we want her for another term?”

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.