(Bloomberg) -- Turkey has dug in on buying a Russian missile-defense system in defiance of threatened U.S. sanctions because trust in Washington has broken down, three Turkish officials said.
Ankara has concluded Washington is acting more like an adversary than an ally, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has resolved to stand firm, the officials said. Turkey is convinced the U.S. can’t replace it strategically with another ally if it goes ahead with the S-400 missile purchase, they added.
The officials are directly familiar with the thinking and planning surrounding security issues and spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
If the countries can’t come to terms, ties may be irrevocably harmed as anti-American and anti-Turkish sentiments flare on either side of the divide. The U.S. would risk losing a crucial partner in the volatile Middle East, and Turkey would risk losing its strongest Western ally and its main weapons supplier.
In the meantime, while Russian President Vladimir Putin may see the missile sale as a wedge between Turkey and the U.S., Ankara is proceeding cautiously in its ties with Moscow and doesn’t see it as a replacement for Washington, the Turkish officials said.
From Erdogan’s perspective, the grievances include:
- The Pentagon armed Syrian Kurdish forces Turkey regards as a threat to its territorial integrity.
- Washington has refused to extradite a Turkish preacher Ankara blames for a failed coup attempt.
- Turkey’s economy has been pummeled by U.S. sanctions on Iran that are driving up energy prices.
- The U.S. is backing Turkey’s rivals in a natural gas dispute with Cyprus and in other regional conflicts.
Different Perspective
The U.S. perspective is very different. While President Donald Trump has praised Erdogan as a strong leader and an ally fighting terrorism, the U.S. says it will have to cut off Turkey from buying -- and helping to build -- F-35 fighter jets if it purchases the Russian batteries designed to shoot down such planes. The administration is weighing three sanctions packages, including one that would all but cripple the already troubled Turkish economy, with penalties possible as early as July, according to people familiar with the matter.
The Trump administration, like the Obama team before it, says U.S. law won’t let it extradite Fethullah Gulen, the exiled Erdogan ally-turned-enemy, unless Turkey can provide stronger evidence that he was behind the coup attempt. And the U.S. says it owes the Syrian Kurdish fighters protection from threatened Turkish attacks after all they did to fight Islamic State.
Asked to comment on Ankara’s perception of relations, a U.S. State Department spokesperson called Turkey a longstanding NATO ally and a “critical partner” in the global coalition to defeat Islamic State. But Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said in a letter to a Turkish counterpart this month that “in addition to threatening the security of platforms like the F-35, Turkey’s procurement of the S-400 will hinder your nation’s ability to enhance or maintain cooperation with the United States and within NATO” and “lead to Turkish strategic and economic over-dependence on Russia.”
Erdogan plans to discuss the S-400 purchase with Trump at the Group of 20 summit this month. He’s counting on his personal rapport with the U.S. leader to fend off stinging sanctions. Ankara is still bracing for the worst-case scenario due to vigorous opposition in Congress, while remaining confident it holds strong cards, the officials said.
Cold War Bulwark
Having served as a bulwark against Russia during the Cold War, Turkey still hosts American nuclear warheads at its Incirlik air base and military installations used by the U.S. to spy on Russia, they noted. It’s also the only barrier keeping more than 4 million refugees, most of them Syrians, from flooding into Europe, they said.
“We will throw away the straitjacket they are trying to put on Turkey,” Erdogan said Sunday.
As Erdogan forges an increasingly independent diplomatic path in the region, Turkey has set out new military ambitions based in part on technology from the Russian missile deal. It hopes one day to produce even more sophisticated ballistic missiles and its own fighters, the officials said.
“We will either be a country dependent on others, or we will endure difficulties together with our nation to become a fully independent and free country and continue on our path,” Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Friday.
Turkey’s sense that it must take its defense into its own hands was deepened in 2015 when the U.S. withdrew air defenses from Turkey following Ankara’s crackdown after a surge of Kurdish militant violence.
Bitter Memories
Turkey bitterly remembers a crippling U.S. arms embargo imposed after Turkey seized northern Cyprus following an attempt to unite the island with Greece in 1974. The prospect of U.S. sanctions over the S-400 helped to send the lira sliding more than 10% this year.
Actual penalties -- including threatened exclusion from F-35 production by July 31 -- could aggravate the country’s economic woes and complicate the development of its defense industry. Istanbul’s financial markets were already sent into a once-in-a-generation nosedive last summer after Trump sanctioned Turkey to secure an American pastor’s freedom.
While the U.S. in December proposed selling its Patriot missile defense system to Turkey in a bid to get it to scrap the S-400 purchase, it’s not even clear Congress would approve because of anti-Turkey sentiment among American lawmakers, the officials said.
Longtime Fixation
Turkey’s fixation on missile defense dates back more than half a century, when the U.S. withdrew its Jupiter missiles from the country in exchange for the removal of Soviet launchers from Cuba. That helped to end the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, but Turkey has remained haunted by the weakness of its air defense ever since.
U.S. pressure was enough to force Turkey to scrap its earlier deal to buy a missile defense system from China in 2013, but circumstances are different now given the various Turkish frustrations.
Incirlik, used for U.S. air operations against Islamic State, was once the main operating location for the U.S. U-2 plane that spied on Russia.
Today, in a sign of Turkey’s shifting priorities, a giant white-and-red signboard has been erected at the entrance to the base. It reads: “Strong army, strong Turkey.”
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