Euro-Area Manufacturing Surveys May Be Overstating Growth: Chart

(Bloomberg) -- Euro-area manufacturing surveys paint a very positive picture toward the end of the year, yet it’s important to sound a note of caution as the signal is probably too good to be true, said Bloomberg economist Maxime Sbaihi. Purchasing-manager surveys have overstated the actual data in the past. For example, a simple PMI forecast model implied a 1.4 percent growth rate in manufacturing in the first quarter, but the actual official numbers showed it to be 0.1 percent.

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