As an year of uncertainty draws to a close for Indian equities, nearly two-thirds of Nifty 50 companies missed forecasts analysts made at the start of 2019.
Thirty-one constituents of the 50-stock index didn’t meet the average 12-month price target assigned at the start of the year, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg showed. Exactly the same number of companies had missed forecasts last year as well.
What made analysts job tough was a roller-coaster ride for the stock markets in 2019. Uncertainty stemmed from the general election, a tax surcharge on the super rich and its partial rollback, a global trade war, a slowing economy and much more.
Here are the top stocks that surprised or disappointed analysts:
Underperformers
Yes Bank Ltd. disappointed the most, with the stock missing average 12-month target—of analyst estimates tracked by Bloomberg—by 82 percent.
The Mumbai-based lender came under pressure after the Reserve Bank of India denied founder Rana Kapoor an extension over bad loans. Sale of shares pledged by promoters, poor earnings and board exits made matters worse.
GAIL India Ltd., Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., Vedanta Ltd. and Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. were among the other companies that didn’t live up to analyst expectations.
Outperformers
Bajaj Finance Ltd. beat the consensus forecast by the highest margin in 2019 among the Nifty stocks, surpassing the target price by nearly 77.6 percent.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd., Bajaj Finserv Ltd., ICICI Bank Ltd. and Asian Paints Ltd. were the other stocks that surprised analysts the most.
How Broader Markets Performed
Of the 199 broader-market stocks outside Nifty 50 and tracked by at least 10 analysts, 137 missed the consensus price target at the start of the year.
Dewan Housing Corporation Ltd. disappointed the most with the stock missing the target by 95 percent.
The non-bank lender tumbled as a liquidity squeeze after the IL&FS defaults continued in 2019, drying up funds. The company in June 2019 failed to receive Reserve Bank of India’s approval for the restructuring plan proposed by the lenders. On Nov. 20, the central bank superseded the board of the non-banker and it landed that later filed for DHFL’s insolvency.
After DHFL, Vodafone Idea Ltd., Sterlite Technologies Ltd., Dish TV India Ltd. and Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd. disappointed the street the most.
Manappuram Finance Ltd. surpassed the forecast by nearly 74.3 percent, the highest among broader-market stocks. Bata India Ltd. (73.6 percent) and PI Industries Ltd. (65.1 percent) followed.
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