Biden’s Lead Is Wider Than Ever, But It Won’t Necessarily Last

This is all good news for the often-embattled frontrunner, who’s stumbled through a series of gaffes and been the subject of attacks in both Democratic debates. More importantly, this is the first poll I’ve seen where Biden’s lead has measurably increased—the last CNN poll, in late June, had him at 22%. Voters say they prize the ability to defeat Trump above all else, and they believe Biden is the candidate most likely to do so, hence his resilience. 

But as nice as that is for the former vice president, it poses a potential problem down the road.

Right now, “electability” is Joe Biden’s superpower. It’s what he emphasizes in a new TV ad. It’s also the message his wife, Jill Biden, delivered to voters in New Hampshire on Monday. “I know that not all of you are committed to my husband,” she told a Nashua crowd. “But I want you to think about your candidate, his or her electability, and who’s going to win this race.” She continued: “Your candidate might be better on, I don’t know, health care, than Joe is. But you’ve got to look at who’s going to win this election. And maybe you have to swallow a little bit and say, ‘OK, I personally like so-and-so better,’ but your bottom line has to be that we have to beat Trump.”

Jill Biden’s remarks may have revealed more than she intended—or realized. Suggesting voters should settle for her husband on the basis of his perceived electability when they might prefer another candidate highlights Biden’s Achilles heel: If that perception changes, or if voters become less fixated on electability, the rationale for Biden’s candidacy could suddenly evaporate.

Let’s take the second part first. The new CNN poll contains this interesting nugget: Democrats and left-leaning independents are less concerned with electability than they were six weeks ago. In June, 61% said it was more important to pick a nominee with a “strong chance of beating Donald Trump,” while 30% favored someone “who shares your positions.” Today, 54% say beating Trump is paramount, while 39% are keyed on issue positions. One possible explanation: recent polls show all the Democratic frontrunners beating Trump head-to-head, making the issue of electability moot.

Even if those numbers remain steady, it isn’t hard to imagine a scenario the perception of Biden’s electability falls apart. In the 2008 cycle, Hillary Clinton was widely perceived to be the most electable Democrat in the field. Barack Obama’s victory in Iowa shattered that impression overnight, and he went on to win the nomination. 

Most Iowa Democrats I’ve spoken to believe Warren has the strongest campaign in the state. The CNN poll suggests she also has ample room to grow her support. Respondents were more eager to “learn more about” Warren than any other candidate, a measure that often translates to future support. A Warren victory in Iowa could be kryptonite to Biden’s image of electability in the same way Obama’s victory there put Clinton on a path to defeat.

Biden’s campaign is obviously aware of this—its new ad is running in Iowa. But the case it makes for its candidate is based explicitly on a snapshot of public opinion. “We have to beat Donald Trump,” the ad’s narrator intones, “and all the polls agree Joe Biden is the strongest Democrat to do the job.”

CNN’s new poll certainly buttresses that argument. But voters are fickle and polls change. What if, six months from now, the polls agree someone else is the strongest candidate? As Jill Biden implicitly concedes, her husband’s campaign won’t have health care (or much else) to fall back on if his standing takes a hit.

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