Not many saw this rally coming.
In a year of slowing economy, global trade uncertainty and earnings volatility, India’s benchmark indices are ending higher. The Nifty 50 has gained 13 percent, crossing the 12,000 mark, in a rally led by select heavyweights. In BloombergQuint’s survey conducted at the end of 2018, the majority of respondents didn’t expect the benchmark to surpass that level.
Going into 2020, 26 respondents—market experts, heads of research, fund managers and chief investment officers—polled by BloombergQuint are cautious in their optimism.
Here’s what India’s market experts predict for 2020:
Nearly three-fourths of the respondents expect the benchmarks Nifty 50 and Sensex to rise between 5 and 10 percent.
Unlike in 2019, most of the market experts see small and mid caps outperforming in 2020.
Half of the respondents expect a pre-budget rally.
Most of them don’t expect a cut in personal income tax to boost equity investments.
The majority of the respondents expect banks and public sector stocks to outperform in 2020.
Auto and telecom sectors emerged as the two possible dark horses of 2020.
Slow credit offtake and a delay in consumption recovery emerged as the biggest potential threats for Indian equities in 2020.
Crude prices and U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies are the biggest unknowns that could threaten Indian stocks.
India’s GDP growth in the quarter ended September slowed to 4.5 percent – lowest since fourth quarter of financial year ended March 2013. Half of the respondents expect a turnaround in the economy by the ongoing third quarter ending December.
None of the respondents expect India to meet the FY20 fiscal target of 3.3 percent. And they expect FY21 fiscal deficit higher at 3.5 percent.
The majority of those polled expect the pressure on the rupee to continue. Here’s how they expect the currency, crude and safe-haven gold to trade in 2020.
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