Time For Jayalalithaa’s Faceless Ministers To Step Up
It was a smooth transition. O Panneerselvam, was sworn in as Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu soon after J Jayalalithaa died at 11:30 p.m. on Monday, December 5. AIADMK members of the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly had elected him as legislative party leader earlier. Panneerselvam was the man who stepped up on the two occasions when Jayalalithaa had to step down due to corruption cases. He made sure his extreme reluctance to do so was noticed by everybody shedding copious tears then. This time too he wept into Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s snow white kurta when Modi came to pay his condolences.
There were three people in the running; OPS (as he is known in political circles), Lok Sabha Deputy Speaker M Thambidurai, and Public Works Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami. OPS was backed by Sasikala - Jayalalithaa’s companion and confidant. Both Sasikala and OPS belong to the powerful thevar community. No one is expected to oppose OPS in the near-future.
OPS has been visible only because of his previous ‘substitute chief minister’ status. He is neither charismatic, nor a great orator. For nearly 30 years, the AIADMK had been a party of Jayalalithaa first, and then the rest. She did not believe in anointing a successor or building a second line of leadership. Most would find it difficult to name the members of her cabinet. During her previous stint as chief minister in 2011-16, her cabinet was reshuffled almost on a monthly basis. As for the current cabinet it’s not clear yet how effective these ministers are. It has been said that Jayalalithaa’s ministers were never allowed to take any initiative on their own. It had to come from the supreme leader. Is it going to be different now? The Fifteenth Tamil Nadu Assembly still has four and a half years left.
Then there is the ‘Sasikala factor.’ What role is she going to play? So far she has been perceived as the power behind the scenes. Is she going to run the party? Will she be acceptable to everybody? Her large extended family is said to wield a lot of power. With Jayalalithaa, their source of power gone, will their influence fade?
There are many questions for which clear answers have not emerged.
Rivals Within And Without
It is said that caste wars may already be breaking out in the party. Thambidurai, like OPS and Sasikala, is a thevar. Palaniswami, a gounder by caste, is on the opposing side. After Jayalalithaa, there does not appear to be a unifying force in the party. Although the AIADMK won the assembly elections last May, it did so with a significantly reduced majority. The DMK lost by a narrow margin. If MK Stalin, the opposition leader, manages to lure 20-30 AIADMK members away from the party, it could destabilise this government. He may not even have to do this if factional wars break out within the AIADMK.
The DMK and Congress formed an alliance for the 2016 assembly elections but seem to have a love-hate relationship now. The Congress has not won an election in the state on its own since the sixties, and has often allied with the Dravidian parties. The smaller parties (DMDK, MDMK, VCK, CPI, CPM) lost heavily in the recent assembly elections and there are no signs yet of their resurrection. The BJP has made no inroads so far, even though the middle class is said to be firmly behind Prime Minister Modi. There are no signs of space being created for a new party.
Balancing Welfare Schemes And Industry
Though Jayalalithaa had assiduously built up a caregiver brand - ‘Amma’ - both AIADMK and DMK have in the past two decades promoted a freebie culture. Social welfare schemes, free and discounted giveaways have been the norm. And while critics may sneer, these schemes have often provided the poor social security and helped them build assets.
Jayalalithaa surpassed rival DMK in introducing schemes for the poor and women, demographic constituencies that backed her for much of her political career. She drew inspiration from AIADMK’s founder and matinee idol MG Ramachandran, who was focused on the needs of the poor, for instance he introduced the noon meal schemes. Industry was not one of his priorities.
But unlike her mentor, Jayalalithaa understood that the state had to attract investment to grow, in order to have the funds to implement social welfare schemes. It is during her first stint as chief minister that she managed to bring automaker Ford to Tamil Nadu. The state is now one of the country’s biggest automotive hubs with large production facilities set up by Hyundai, Renault-Nissan, and BMW, along with those of Chennai-headquartered Ashok Leyland and Royal Enfield.
Jayalalithaa also helped find land for the information technology (IT) sector in its high-growth years. Tamil Nadu has been one fastest growing states in the country, clocking 8.8 percent gross state domestic product growth in the financial year 2015-16, and is the second largest state contributor to India’s gross domestic product.
In terms of poverty alleviation, Tamil Nadu is one of eight states that reduced poverty at a rate higher than the all-India average. The state’s per-capita income at current prices in 2015-16 was Rs 1.43 lakh, about 70 percent above the all-India average, and the third-highest among large states.
Tamil Nadu is ranked second among large states on the Human Development Index, and its socioeconomic development status is much higher than the national average. The state is also well connected with ports, airports and has a good road network.
As a manufacturing state, Tamil Nadu is likely to lose revenue when the Goods and Services Tax is introduced. The slowdown due to demonetisation is not going to help either. The state has not attracted big projects recently; only incremental investment has trickled in. There is a perception that Tamil Nadu is slowing down and investments are going to Andhra Pradesh and Telangana because of their dynamic leaders. Is the OPS cabinet capable of tackling slowing growth?
Sushila Ravindranath is a senior business journalist and the author of Surge: Tamil Nadu’s Growth Story.
The views expressed here are those of the author’s and do not necessarily represent the views of BloombergQuint or its editorial team.