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HUL Stock Falls on Earnings Miss; Analysts Divided Over Outlook

Brokerages divided over HUL’s earnings & growth outlook.

Packages of Hindustan Unilever Ltd.’s Surf Excel detergent displayed at a store (Photographer: Kuni Takahashi/Bloomberg)
Packages of Hindustan Unilever Ltd.’s Surf Excel detergent displayed at a store (Photographer: Kuni Takahashi/Bloomberg)

Hindustan Unilever Ltd. continued to fall for the second straight session, on the back of revenue and volume growth performance that missed analysts estimates. The stock fell as much as 2.9 percent to Rs 894.35, after Monday’s 2.1 percent fall.

Broking firms are divided on HUL’s earnings and the outlook for the stock. Here’s a snapshot of what Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas Equity Research and Citi Research had to say in their notes to clients.

Goldman Sachs

  • Maintained ‘neutral’ rating.
  • Cut target price to Rs 665 from Rs 695.
  • Cut FY17-19 earnings before interest and taxes forecast by 1 percent to 6 percent to reflect slower volume growth.
  • Cut earnings per share estimates by 1 percent to 4 percent. Cited tax benefits for smaller cut.
Remain concerned about premiumization-led strategy in an environment with high competitive intensity and limited affordability for urban mass consumers.
Goldman Sachs’ Note to Clients

(Goldman Sachs has the lowest price target for HUL among 43 analysts tracked by Bloomberg).

Morgan Stanley

  • Maintained ‘overweight/attractive’ rating.
  • Cited high visibility for operating margin expansion even in an inflationary environment.
  • Target price maintained at Rs 945/share.
  • Disappointed by volume trend.

BNP Paribas Equity Research

  • Maintained ‘buy’ rating, said HUL best proxy for rural recovery.
  • Raised target price by 3 percent to Rs 1,020.
  • Cut FY17 revenue and EPS estimates by 1.7 percen each due to muted demand outlook in first half of the fiscal year.
  • Maintained FY18 and FY19 estimates citing good monsoon and improving medium-term outlook.

Citi Research

  • Maintained ‘sell’ rating, said growth remains elusive.
  • Raised target price to Rs 830 from Rs 825.
Difficult to be constructive at around 45 times FY17 price to earnings, and 40 times FY18 price to earnings, especially given current outlook.
CIti Research’s Note to Clients.